"To achieve superior investment results, you have to hold non-consensus views that are also correct." —Howard Marks

When I started to work closely with traders, someone shared this insight with me. A deceptively simple truth that changed how I understood investing, and now strategic decision-making. If your peers and team agree on a strategic decision, you might be missing an opportunity to create real advantage.

Consensus feels good. It spreads risk, aligns everyone, makes execution smoother. But by the time a strategic move feels obvious to everyone, the opportunity window has likely closed. Early movers capture value; consensus followers compete on execution in crowded markets.

This doesn't mean being contrarian for its own sake. It means recognizing that truly strategic decisions—the ones that create competitive advantage—require someone to choose a direction before the path is clear to everyone else.

Your competitors are smart too. They're capable of reaching the same consensus you are. If your strategic choice would be obvious to rivals, you're probably not creating differentiation.

The most valuable strategic decisions feel uncomfortable because they require conviction without certainty. Entering unproven markets. Investing in capabilities without immediate ROI. Building products customers don't yet know they want.

Operations benefit from consensus—everyone rowing in the same direction. Strategy requires someone to pick the direction while others are still studying the map.

The decisions that feel most uncertain internally are often the ones that create the most external advantage. I like to ask myself: What decision are you avoiding because it doesn't feel safe enough yet?